Although things are happening, it still feels insufficient. We find ourselves in a period of uncertainties, where skeptics claim “NFTs are dead,” traders hesitate to invest in cryptocurrencies, and venture capitalists take longer to support new startups. However, I remain optimistic, as I can see a glimmer of hope at the end of this seemingly endless tunnel.

September concluded with the first quarterly loss of the year, confirming the prevailing fear in the market. It appears that Bitcoin has found short-term support within the range of $25k-$27k. What should we expect next? Are there any positive developments in the market, or a new kangaroo cicely has started?

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price Today: $27.1k
Price one year ago: $18.3k
Price two years ago: $45.3k
Market Cap: $529 Billion
Volume (24h): $5.7 Billion
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Boring markets(?)

I must admit, Bitcoin’s price action has been quite boring lately. As a former trader, I’m not particularly inclined to engage in short-term trading of Bitcoin right now. The current situation is delicate, with market giants like Binance facing scrutiny from regulatory bodies such as the SEC and CFTC. If you’re unfamiliar with the details, check out this Twitter post: MARKET UPDATE: ARE BINANCE AND CZ IN TROUBLE?

With that being said, let’s explore the three potential price actions for Bitcoin. Today, I’ll provide you with my probabilities of the market going up, down, or moving sideways.

1. BULL – 15%

While it is possible for the price to rise towards $33.5k (+23% from its current level), it is highly unlikely to happen in the short term. Such a movement would require strong fundamentals which are currently lacking. However, given the unpredictable nature of the market, it is important to remain open to unexpected events.

2. BEAR – 40%

Volumes are a reliable indicator of liquidity exchanging hands, and when volumes decrease, it means reduced demand for the asset, resulting in lower asset value. Typically, when there is no technical or fundamental reason for an upward movement, the price is more likely to decline, attracting new buyers at lower levels. A reasonable target could be $23k, aligning with my imaginary line (support) that originated in July 2017 with four previous touches.

3. KANGAROO – 55%

Traders despise this situation because when they have no idea where the price is heading, it becomes challenging to identify a trend to trade. We saw this during the fall and winter of 2018. As a result, those who attempt to trade in such uncertain times tend to allocate less money and exit positions more swiftly due to prevailing uncertainty sentiments. Based on the pattern we’ve observed since March, I would venture to say that the bitcoin price is more likely to consolidate within the range of $25k and $32k throughout the winter.

Conclusions

The plan is always the same, have a plan and stick to it. Additionally, it’s important to stay updated on the evolution of ETF applications. By the way, if you haven’t heard, the SEC has recently delayed the launch of BlackRock and Valkyrie spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“The SEC has a maximum of 240 days to approve or deny an ETF from the date the filing appears in the Federal Register, which would place a decision date for these proposed funds in late May 2024, with several interim deadlines where it can ask for additional public feedback and thereby delay the final decision.” – CoinDesk

Yes, the SEC has to make a decision by the end of May, just one month after the Bitcoin Halving event on April 25. If the ETFs are approved, I would confidently call the bull market. I am eagerly anticipating a promising year ahead, not only for Bitcoin’s price action but also for the entire crypto industry.

Bitcoin has been a hot topic lately, covering everything from Ordinals to ETF filings and a remarkable price increase of over 100% since November (from the local bottom). While the market is slowly recovering from the FTX scandal, trading volumes remain relatively low. However, crypto investors are becoming more active on social media, and NFT enthusiasts are eager to dive in and purchase more digital artwork. Let’s delve deeper into this fascinating landscape!

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price Today: $30.5k
Price one year ago: $20k
Price two years ago: $33k
Market Cap: $592 Billion
Volume (24h): $8.1 Billion
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Short-term

It appears that an ABCDE pattern is currently unfolding, with the target set at $38k (Fibonacci level 161.18%). The price experienced a correction from mid-April to mid-June (-20%), followed by a 10-day uptrend resulting in a 25% price increase. This presented a short-term opportunity for scalp traders. However, for long-term investors, now is a favorable moment to accumulate Bitcoin if you plan on holding it for the next 2–5 years.

Long Term

Regarding the longer-term (weekly timeframe), I maintain my previous market analysis suggesting that Bitcoin could experience a pullback to $20k. Certain traders are anticipating a potential “Black Swan” event at the $15-$17k range before attempting to break higher levels, possibly surpassing $50k.

What is a Black Swan event? See March 2020 for reference.

Fundamental

On June 15, BlackRock submitted a filing to the SEC for approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund). As a result, crypto traders are feeling bullish as they anticipate its potential impact. This could explain the recent surge toward $30k. However, it may be premature to draw conclusions, as the first deadline for the SEC’s decision is set for August 12. At this point, the SEC can choose to accept, deny, or delay the application for 45 days. It’s worth noting that such delays can occur up to four times, with the next Bitcoin Halving scheduled just a month later on February 23, 2024.

Despite the SEC approving numerous Bitcoin ETFs and other types of crypto exchange-traded funds, they have only been comfortable giving the green light to funds that track cryptocurrency futures or hold stocks of companies indirectly linked to crypto. However, the SEC has made it clear that they consider Bitcoin ETF filings as “inadequate”.

Applications from BlackRock, along with similar filings by Ark Investment Management and Grayscale, aim to offer investors straightforward and easily tradable funds that directly track the current price of BTC. This is in contrast to tracking the prices of futures contracts.

Will BlackRock succeed where others have failed?

Conclusions – Is it a good time to go on vacation?

I guess that the crypto market will heat up again this summer. However, we lack the necessary fundamentals to confirm a potential bull market. Many are eagerly awaiting the acceptance of a Spot ETF by the SEC, as it could drive adoption in the crypto industry. Others are placing their bets on the upcoming halving, which is less than a year away. Both indicators hold validity, but one remains uncertain while the other requires more time to develop a foolproof plan.

Although I initially considered accumulating more ETH, I have decided against it. Historically, my bags haven’t fared well during the summer months. Therefore, I will patiently wait until September to reenter the market. As always, it’s crucial to refrain from investing without a well-defined plan.

For now, it seems like a perfect time for me to take a vacation. I’ll unwind and return with a fresh mindset, ready to take the bull by the horns!

Not much happened during the last three months; perhaps the market is deciding which direction to take in the coming months. During these “dull” periods in the market, memecoins are hedges to gamble on, but this trend typically lasts no more than two months (as we have seen many times before). So, what can we expect during the summer? Will Bitcoin attempt to break $30k, or will it correct back to $20k? Let’s dive in, shall we?

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price today: $26.8k
Price one year ago: $30k
Price two years ago: $36.6k
Market Cap: $520 Billion
Volume (24h): $15.7 Million
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Today, I’d like to focus on the significance of the MA 100 in the weekly timeframe, which I consider a trendsetter. As you can observe from the chart above, the MA 100 (represented by the light blue light) has frequently acted as support since 2018, and when broken, a downtrend would follow.

1. From June to November 2018, it served as support, However, once it was broken, the price lost 47% in a few weeks, leading to a downturn.
2. In April 2019, it acted as resistance ($5.3k) Nevertheless, once this resistance was broken, the price surged to $14k (+160%).
3. From November-December 2019, it acted as support, enabling a short rally in January and February 2020.
4. In March 2020, the price once again experienced a 47% decline after breaking the MA 100.
   1. BTW, when the price went up again above all the MAs during the summer, I bought Bitcoin at 9.5k in 2x and sold it at $41.5k in January (my best trade so far).
      The basis for this trade was the price being above all the MAs, which is a powerful indicator.
      
5. From  January to March 2022, it served again as support, and…
6. In May 2022, it broke down once more, resulting in a 50% decline.
7. Now, to be honest with you, I was expecting that the price would break the MA followed by a rally to $35k, but the technical analysis is not enough (also it s taking too much time to break up); there is no fundamental reason for the price to pump at this moment in the market.

Bitcoin’s price action is clearly influenced by macroeconomics; it is not an independent market, and recognizing the pattern is not enough. Yep, this “MA 100 Theory” might not be reliable, but I still find it worth considering, as I mentioned above, since I view it as a trendsetter.

Speaking of the macro perspective, yesterday I jumped in a Twitter space hosted by Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse), a market analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, and I had the opportunity to ask him how the market will perform in the short term as we enter the summer. And he shared that the FED might not reduce interest rates, bringing them back to 2% levels, which will most likely impact the crypto market, particularly Altcoins.

Conclusions – Ready to bleed again?

Not because Benjamin said it, but because I do agree with him. I don’t see any indication of a bullish trend in the coming months, neither in the macro nor the crypto market. As you can see from the chart above, I expect the price to drop back to $20k by September, which will give me the opportunity to accumulate.
If you have bought between $15.5k and $17k, you have my respect, hold it. I am waiting for a lower high at $20k, as happened also in March 2020.
That being said, not even Benjamin has the crystal ball, so take your time to develop an entry strategy because you make money when you buy, not when you sell.

Before we dive into the analysis, I highly encourage you to read our two previous analyses if you haven’t yet, as they are still relevant.

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price today: $28.5k
Price one year ago: $46k
Price two years ago: $58k
Market Cap: $550 Billion
Volume (24h): $16 Million
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently in an uptrend in the short term; the price reached $31k from our previous low of $15.5k (+100%), and right now it is in a lateralization phase that might not last very long. A correction to $25.2k in the next few days or weeks has to be expected (in order to complete the ABCDE pattern, as you can see on the right) before trying to go towards $35k or $40k. That being said, a correction to $20k must still be taken into consideration.

Ethereum

Ethereum, as we can see in the chart on the left (1M TF), looks bearish too since the last monthly candle wicked by 12%, bringing the price slightly above the AMA 21 (currently acting as resistance at $1,850). As always, ETH will follow Bitcoin in the event of a correction (or vice versa).
I maintain a positive outlook on the Ethereum blockchain, viewing it as a technology rather than a speculative asset. It has been delivering significant updates, such as the Shanghai Upgrade on April 12th (if you missed our Twitter space, click here to listen to the recording), with more in store in the coming months/years (EVM Object Format and Urge Upgrades).

EDCON (edcon.io)
Between May 19 and 23, I will be attending the yearly Ethereum Foundation Conference.
Reach out to me to get a 20% discount on the ticket price.

The DYX (Dollar Index) is currently in a downtrend since September 2022, and as we all know, the value of the DYX is influenced by economic growth and the financial market sentiment, which is not very positive.

Conclusions – Short-term Opportunities

Despite the persistent apprehension in the market, there are still opportunities worth investing in for the long haul. As I often say, there’s no such thing as a bear market; only building markets. Many projects are introducing new applications and protocols with tremendous potential, but be cautious not to fall for those that exploit AI for fundraising or launch non-liquid tokens. However, the most critical takeaway is to avoid investing your life savings in memecoins for the sake of earning quick profits; otherwise, you may end up homeless instead of cruising in a Lamborghini.

One final piece of advice: follow the money, don’t follow “dump” money 😉

As we predicted in our previous market analysis, bitcoin’s price went to $28.5k with monthly confirmation above the MA 21 (and the MA 100 in the weekly TF). This is a clear bullish signal (from the TA), but I haven’t seen any fundamentals that are driving this run. Most likely, we are still in an accumulation phase, and there is still disbelief in the market spreading that the price might go back to $20k in the following months (very likely to happen considering the Bitcoin cycle). 

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price today: $28.5k
Price one year ago: $46k
Price two years ago: $58k
Market Cap: $550 Billion
Volume (24h): $16 Million
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Let’s hear from IT4I 

WHO IS IT4I?
IT4I is an on-chain analyst, Head of Product, CEO at Forum5, and founder of The Connors and Guru Indicator.
Twitter profile: @0xIT4I
Join his Telegram group for period alphas and more analysis:

— From my point of view, crypto is now entering the last dance of its uptrend cycle. In this short article, I’ll try to lay out why I think so in three different aspects: liquidity, psychology, and macro.

• Liquidity: The (USDC+USDT)/total, is a simple stable dominance chart, and it represents how much skin investors have in the game. This chart is following a clear trend and, historically speaking (even though we don’t have enough data points to determine), is reaching its high-risk bend.
• Psychology: Bears are in such pain that some of them are flipping bullish now. I’ve seen this before, and it’s usually then, when the losing side is flipping its approach and the winning side is euphoric, that they both get hit. And let’s not even start talking about the $1 million BTC narrative.
• Macro: As much as we want to believe that bitcoin is the safest asset against the flaws of the economy, and even though I see the shift in correlation going on at the moment with btc:spx. After watching the last FOMC meeting, Powell was hawkish. “People who doubt we won’t reach 2% should think again”. Will they ever reach 2%? I doubt it. Does it mean interest rates are not going down any time soon? Probably yes.

On a more bullish note, I think we still have some time to party, but the music is starting to glitch, and eventually, it will stop fairly soon—in my opinion, within 4–8 weeks. It is worth mentioning that usually the biggest gain comes at the end.— 

Conclusion ~ Trading ain’t EASY

The difference between a successful trader and one who isn’t is how often, based on information and experience gained over time, they pick the right trend, whether it’s going up or down. Trading based on your sentiment is called betting, and even if you think the odds are 50/50, they are not, because once you get the “zero”, you get liquidated. Pick your side and stick to your plan, and for your sake, use stop losses and don’t get greedy.

While I am positive that the price will go up in the medium term, that does not mean that in the short term, the price can correct up to $20k. This is a period of uncertainty in which the price can go up or down (50/50). What will move the market? From technical analysis, the Bitcoin price is inclined to rise to $28k, where it will cross the EMA 100 on the weekly TF, but this uptrend movement must be driven primarily by fundamental analysis, either crypto- or non-crypto-related news that gives investors hope.

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price today: $23k
Price one year ago: $43k
Price two years ago: $45-49k
Market Cap: $459 Billion
Volume (24h): $24.3 Million
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price action

INDICATORS
It is crystal clear that the RSI is in a bullish phase, very similar to the beginning of 2019.
The Stock RSI is overbought right now in the weekly TF, but in the monthly TF, it is still in an oversold area.

Day traders are the ones scalping (short-term trades in TF lower than 1D) during this phase because mid-term investors are unsure whether the market will go up or down in the following weeks.

What about DXY? It has performed well since January, gaining +4% in three months. I also see an ABCD pattern that may end at 130 points, but there is resistance at 120 points which was reached in 2001 before that.

Conclusion ~ Is this the beginning of the new circle?

I leave you with more questions than you had before reading this article, and I would say that this analysis is not very helpful. That being said, I have one last question for you: Are you here for the long run? If yes, hold your bags and build something around you. And get ready for the raging bull!

I don’t mean to say “I told you so“, but I made it clear in our previous report: January 1, 2023 ~ New year → New Opportunities
Since our last technical analysis a month ago, the price of BTC has jumped by 45% from $16.5k to almost $24k, which is great but still not enough.

We must always make our trades based on confirmed signals, and right now we do not have all of them yet because, as you can see in the following chart, we have to break short-term EMAs and the price hasn’t yet tested the EMA 21 (this EMA is a market trend decider), but what if we do?
If we do test $28.5k, we will either break it toward $30k or return to $24k, but before that, we must consider that the last pump may be a bull trap. I don’t disagree because a correction here is unavoidable for the market’s health; if there is no correction, we will go towards $28.5k.

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price Today: $ 23k
Price one year ago: $42k
Price two years ago: $40k
Market Cap: $441Billion
Volume (24h): $24 Million
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

INDICATORS
We are about to perform the Golden Cross on the RSI and get out of the oversold area in the stock RSI, but more confirmation will come with the closing of the March candle.

BULL TRAP
A “bull trap” is a false signal in financial markets indicating a trend reversal and upward price movement when, in reality, prices are likely to continue declining. This occurs when investors buy into a false perception of a price rally and end up losing money.

Macro and crypto sentiment with Shamsi

— The macro is in an interesting position; we are quite a bit higher than the November low ($15.5k); the targets I am looking at are between $24k and $25k; if we break this resistance on the weekly TF, I would aim for $29k; if $24k is rejected, my bearish target is below $17k because I believe this is not an organic movement; everything depends on the weekly close.

DYX is hard to predict where it is going, but today we might see a quick pump to $24.4k and then a back down (or vice versa, a dump to $21k and then a leg up to $25k) because today the FOMC is meeting and this might impact the price action. But I still think this is another bear market rally; I am personally not entering long in this area yet.—

Conclusions

You heard the man! Keep one eye on the charts and another on the news.
Make yourself comfortable, because whenever the price is about to go, this is going to be interesting. As always, be ready with a plan for both ways.
If you don’t know where to start, schedule a call with us here: calendly.com, and we’ll help you build an investment plan based on your financial needs.

For a couple of months, I’d been noticing a pattern in the Bitcoin chart on the monthly TF, but I wanted to wait for more confirmations before sharing my opinion, or rather, my theory. And now I feel quite sure, let’s say 90%, that the pattern has been confirmed; a 95% confirmation would be given by the closing of the January monthly candle (green) and a 100% confirmation by the closing of the February monthly candle (green). Let’s dive in!

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price today: $16.5k
Price one year ago: $46k
Price two years ago: $29k|
Market Cap: $318 Billion
Volume (24h): $10 Billion
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price action

INDICATORS
The indicators haven’t changed much since my last analysis on October 26, 2022. I invite you to click here if you want to read more about that specific analysis.

Allow me to shill a couple of friends of mine and communities that deliver trading analysis and Alpha calls based on solid technical and fundamental analysis:
@Shamsi.eth (Official Partner)
Shamsi’s YT Channel
Steady Stack
Guru
The Trading Room
Alpha Cafe

Everything started in January 2015, when bitcoin went down to $150 from its local ATH of $1,160 (-86% over 13 months), followed by an accumulation phase that lasted for 8 months and the beginning of the next bull market.
In January 2019, bitcoin went down to $3,200 from its local ATH of $19,500 (-84% over 12 months), followed by an accumulation phase that lasted for 4 months and the beginning of the next bull market.

Bitcoin is at $16,500 in January 2023 (despite a dip to 15,500 in November 2022) from its ATH of $69,000 (-78% over 14 months), and we have been in an accumulation phase since December, which could last another 2 to 4 months (first quarter). Now I am expecting that a new bullish circle will start even though the price can go deeper due to speculation, market sentiment, and the macroeconomy.

Conclusions

Again, this theory of mine is not yet confirmed, but there are other indicators to take into consideration, such as funds moving out of CEXs, big players exiting the market, and crypto communities starting to engage again.

What will I do from now on? In the coming weeks, I will start accumulating ETH very slowly with a long-term objective, keep building and working at MHL Solutions, deliver more of this content, and be patient. HNY!🎊🎆

I’ve always been bullish on the long-term run of cryptos for one simple reason: patterns. What happened in the past repeats itself in the same way.

Yes, traders, the chances for a pattern to close as it should in the crypto market are lower than in the traditional market because of a lack of liquidity. This means that not everything always goes as predicted, and you should look for confirmation in long-term timeframes (LTF); the larger the pattern, the more likely it is that it will come into play because others have seen the same thing.

Bitcoin Tokenomics
Price today: $17k
Price one year ago: $50k
Price two years ago: $18.5k
Market Cap: $328 Billion
Volume (24h): $25 Billion
Click here to read more about Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price action

1-month TF ~ Is this the bottom?

I don’t know you guys, but I see a huge “imaginary line” that is dictating the uptrend of Bitcoin. The chart is in the logarithmic option, and it is clear that digital gold is in an uptrend.
RSI and STOCK RSI are oversold, it usually indicates that the bottom is approaching, but confirmation comes only when it is in play.

6 months TF ~ Support? Or just an imaginary line?

EMA 9 has been “acting” as support since January 2015, even though this EMA is very small and therefore hard to take into consideration because it clearly follows the price.
The EMA 21 is new in the TF and hasn’t been tested yet (~$12k).
Even if it may seem like a gamble, I would keep it in mind if the price were to fall toward these levels.

12 months TF ~ 3-1-3-1-3-1-3?

There is not much to say here; with 31 days left to close, based on this pattern, the next candle should be green. I guess we have to wait 13 months for confirmation.

Conclusion (or not?)

I leave you with more questions than you had before reading this article, and I would say that this analysis is not very helpful. That being said, I have one last question for you: Are you here for the long run? If yes, hold your bags and build something around you. And get ready for the raging bull!